Seasonal predictions of energy-relevant climate variables through Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections

The goal of this analysis is the better understanding how large-scale atmospheric patterns affect renewable resources over Europe and to investigate what extent dynamical predictions variability might be used formulate empirical prediction local climate conditions (relevant for energy sector). increasing integration into power mix making electricity supply more vulnerable variability, therefore need skillful weather predictions. Forecasting seasonal variations relevant variables can help transition entire industry make informed decision-making. At timescale described by recurring persistent, pressure circulation anomalies that interest vast geographical areas. main North Atlantic region (Euro Teleconnections, EATCs) drive in surface Europe. We analyze reanalysis dataset ERA5 multi-system forecast service provided Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). found observed EATC indices are strongly correlated with variables. However, relationship between impacts not accurately reproduced systems. This opens door employ hybrid dynamical-statistical methods. idea consists combining EATCs reconstructed multiple systems benchmarked these forecasts direct variable from also climatology. suggests methodology bring several improvements Essential Variables.